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☆ Gold rises on Fed rate cut hopes, Middle East tensions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices ticked higher on Monday, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later in the year and tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's appeal. "Investors will look at the political situation in the Middle East and how the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire play out. "Weaker U.S. data offers more policy flexibility for the Fed in terms of rate cuts," paving way for gold prices to stabilize, said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. Markets are pricing in a 67% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, as per CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the Perth Mint's gold product sales in April jumped two-fold from a month earlier, while silver sales fell to their lowest since December.

Persons: Kelvin Wong, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yeap Jun Rong, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Co, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, New York Fed Bank, Chicago Fed, Perth Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, OANDA, Gaza, U.S

☆ The US dollar is strengthening. Here’s what’s driving the rally and what it means for Americans
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-21 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

What does the dollar rally mean internationally? The US Commerce Department releases March figures on new orders for durable goods. The US Commerce Department releases its first estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 20. The US Commerce Department releases March figures on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Persons: it’s, Michelle Bowman, Bell, Claudio Irigoyen, It’s, Samantha Delouya, ”, eMarketer, Ross Benes, Wall, Read, Lockheed Martin, Raymond James, Northrop Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Netflix, Verizon, Truist, Albertsons, The Chicago Fed, Visa, Tesla, Pepsico, Novartis, UPS, Lockheed, Banco Santander, Spotify, General Motors, Halliburton, Global, US Commerce Department, Meta, IBM, Boeing, Chipotle, Hilton, Ford, Hasbro, Whirlpool, Wyndham, Microsoft, Mobile, Caterpillar, Comcast, Intel, P Global, Honeywell, Gilead, Northrop Grumman, Valero, Capital, Nasdaq, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Citizens Financial, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Bank of Japan, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, HCA Healthcare, Colgate, Palmolive, Phillips, Charter Communications, University of Michigan Locations: Europe, Japan, China, Roku

The yield on the 2-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.593%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly on Tuesday as investors weighed the previous day's data points and looked ahead to key inflation figures later in the week. Last week, the central bank indicated that rates will fall this year, although Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that the economic outlook remains uncertain. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index for March also fell to -14.4, below expectations, although the Chicago Fed national activity index improved. There are also several auctions on the slate, including of 17-week, 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Jim Reid, Reid Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Deutsche, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Richmond Locations: U.S

☆ Here’s why the Fed doesn’t see a US recession in coming years
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“The economy is strong, the labor market is strong and inflation has come way down,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday. Fed officials continue to expect three rate cuts this year but the days of ultra-low interest rates are long gone. Up NextMonday: The Chicago Fed releases its National Activity Index for February. The US Commerce Department releases February data on sales of new single-family homes. The US Commerce Department releases February data on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Mike Skordeles, Skordeles, ” Stephanie Lang, Homrich Berg, ”, Clare Duffy, Reddit, Read, Lisa Cook, Christopher Waller Organizations: Washington CNN, Fed, Truist Advisory Services, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Employers, New York Stock Exchange, Trading, IPOs, Chicago Fed, US Commerce Department, McCormick, GameStop, Global, Board, Wednesday, Walgreens Boots Alliance, US Labor Department, University of Michigan, National Association of Realtors

☆ Why a small China-made EV has global auto execs and politicians on edge
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-22 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

The rise of BYD and other Chinese automakers led Tesla CEO Elon Musk in January to warn that Chinese automakers will "demolish" global rivals without trade barriers. Caresoft, an engineering benchmarking and consulting firm, has already torn down one China-built BYD Seagull and is preparing to do another. Michael Wayland / CNBCThe consulting firm tore apart the BYD Seagull piece by piece to benchmark the small EV against vehicles from other startups and traditional automakers. Its initial study of the BYD Seagull found it to be efficiently and simplistically designed, engineered and executed, but with unexpected quality and anticipated reliability. Growing concernsBYD's rise comes at a precarious time for global auto industry dynamics.

Persons: It's, Terry Woychowski, Warren Buffett, —, BYD, Tesla, Elon Musk, Caresoft Bernstein, Nissan, Michael Wayland, Caresoft, simplistically, Woychowski, Mathew Vachaparampil, CNBC BYD, Stellantis —, Donald Trump, Zach Gibson, Jennifer Granholm, Republican Sen, Marco Rubio, Trump, –, GM Dong, Tang, Marin Gjaja, Gjaja, Ford, you've, Evelyn Cheng, Dylan Butts Organizations: Shanghai International Automobile Industry, National Exhibition, Convention Center, Visual China, Getty, U.S, General Motors, Caresoft, Alliance for American Manufacturing, Overseas, Chevrolet, Nissan Leaf, Bolt, Chicago Federal Reserve, BYD, CNBC, Cox Automotive, Seagull, Tesla, Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor, Honda Motor, Hyundai, Kia, — GM, Ford, Chrysler, U.S ., Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Republican, North American Free Trade, Republicans, Buick, SAIC, GM, GM Dong Yue Motors Co, Detroit Locations: Shanghai, LIVONIA, Mich, –, China, Europe, Latin America, Detroit, Texas, Germany, Japan, U.S, Livonia , Michigan, America, XPENG, Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Hungary, Uzbekistan, ., Washington ,, United States, Marco Rubio of Florida, Yantai, Shandong Province

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

☆ Higher-for-longer interest rates favor large companies over their smaller rivals in many ways
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

High interest rates squeeze companies of all sizes, but that’s especially the case for smaller firms, unlike large companies better equipped to weather the storm. Before the Bell: How do the effects of higher-for-longer interest rates on companies vary by size? I think it might be a stretch to say that M&A activity picks up because of higher interest rates, so instead, it’s that if good businesses are beginning to suffer because of higher interest rates, then they might be more likely to be a target. Gas prices always rise as winter winds down because demand increases and gas stations must switch over to more expensive summer fuel. No matter the cause, rising gas prices are bad news for consumers already frustrated by the cost of living.

Persons: It’s, Bell, Lauren Goodwin, Matt Egan, ”, Patrick De Haan, doesn’t, ” Read, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, AAA, ’, HSBC, Walmart, Home Depot, Barclays, Caesars Entertainment, Nvidia, Rivian, Fidelity, Marriott, Intuit, Pacific Gas & Electric, Global, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Warner Bros ., Icahn Enterprises Locations: Washington, Wingstop, United States

☆ Why China poses a growing threat to the U.S. auto industry
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose company operates a large plant in China, has said Chinese automakers are the greatest competitors for his Texas-based company. "They were 26% [market share] a few years ago, up to more than 50% in 2022 and headed towards two-thirds by the end of the decade." Chinese companies have begun expanding into Mexico, Europe and elsewhere, Wakefield said. The EU believes Chinese EVs are undercutting the prices of local models by about 20% in the European market. The influx of Chinese EVs has spurred the European Union to launch into government support for the industry.

Persons: —, Carlos Tavares, Elon Musk, Tesla, Musk, BYD, Massimo Pinca, Reuters BYD, Kristin Dziczek, Mathew Vachaparampil, Bernstein, Eunice Lee, Mark Wakefield, Evelyn Cheng, hasn't, Wakefield, That's Organizations: GM, Shanghai International Automobile Industry, National Exhibition, Convention Center, Visual China, Getty, DETROIT, American, of, SAIC, Dongfeng, General Motors, U.S . Bureau, Analysis, America —, Chrysler, America's GM, Ford Motor, automakers, The New York Times, Economist, Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's, Caresoft, Overseas, Chicago, CNBC, European Union, EU, Union, Volvo, Karma, Ford, U.S, Buick, Lincoln Nautilus Locations: Shanghai, U.S, of China, Asia, Europe, China, Japan, Nio, Mexico, Korea, Germany, Beijing, Texas, Turin, Italy, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Detroit, AlixPartners, Russia, America

☆ Markets tried to fight the Fed on rate cuts. It didn’t work
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.

Persons: ’, Christopher Waller, ”, who’ve, Loretta Mester, “, Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, ”, JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States

Periods of high inflation would offset those when inflation was low as occurred between the financial crisis and the pandemic. Those concerns may not matter anymore if the pandemic has driven inflation and interest rates chronically higher. Speaking at a Boston Fed labor market conference in November, Kohn said the new framework showed the risks of not keeping inflation at bay to begin with. "Probing" for maximum employment "can't ignore...inflation risks," Kohn said, calling for a return to a strategy disavowed in the last review. "I think preemptive tightening is best-practice central banking, and I hope they return to allowing that."

Persons: Joshua Roberts, Jerome Powell, There's, Miesha Williams, Powell, Charles Evans, Evans, Fed, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Donald Kohn, Kohn, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Spelman College, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Chicago, Cleveland Fed, Boston Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta

☆ Fed's Goolsbee expects easing shelter inflation to seal path to 2%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Nov 17 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said the U.S. central bank will "do what it takes" to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal, but that inflation looks to be already on that track if housing price pressures ease as expected. "The overwhelmingly important thing of whether we are going to clearly be on path for inflation is what happens to house price inflation," Goolsbee said at the Chicago Fed's annual Community Bankers Symposium. "If we hit the targets that we expect to hit, then we would be on path to get to 2%, and that's what I call the golden path -- no recession, and it gets down -- but that housing inflation is the thing we should really keep an eye on." Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Ann Saphir Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Chicago, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Fed is making progress on inflation, Goolsbee says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Over the next couple of months, we might equal the fastest drop in inflation in the last century," Goolsbee said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. "So we're making progress on the inflation rate. The term premium is the added compensation investors expect for owning longer-term debt and is measured using financial models. Higher yields and more broadly tightening financial conditions help the Fed by tamping down growth and cooling inflation. If that's coming from term premium and it's tightening, then we have got to take that into account," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, I've, Lorie Logan, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrew Cawthorne, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Dallas, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says fall in US inflation is not just a blip- FT
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "There is a lot saying that inflation is trending down compared with what it has been and that’s what we want," Goolsbee said in an interview with the Financial Times. It wasn’t a one-month blip... we have to hope and keep an eye out to make sure that continues," he said. The Chicago Fed president acknowledged a reversal in rental and other housing inflation after months of easing was a "negative surprise" meriting a "proper element of caution", according to the report. Reporting by Jose Joseph in Bengaluru; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, Jose Joseph, Toby Chopra Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Bond crush stifles markets as $134 billion hits
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The yield spike has supercharged the U.S. dollar worldwide - both a reflection and aggravator of mounting financial stress far and wide. As Deutsche Bank notes, this is historically significant territory as the average of the 10-year yield going back to 1799 is around 4.50%. The Treasury sells $48 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $49 billion in five-year paper on Wednesday and $37 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the Fed probably needs to raise borrowing rates further. Private sector bankers are starting to brace for the worst, with JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon reported overnight as warning: "I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7% (Fed rates)."

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Mike Dolan, South Korea's, Sterling, haven't, Neel Kashkari, Said Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, Christine Lagarde, China Evergrande, Michelle Bowman, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Bank of Japan, South, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Minneapolis Fed, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Dallas Fed's, Chicago Fed's, HK, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Costco, Cintas, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, U.S, Wall St, Asia, Europe, Philadelphia, Washington

CHICAGO (AP) — The Chicago Symphony Orchestra and members of the Chicago Federation of Musicians voted Tuesday to ratify a three-year labor contract that incudes 3% annual salary raises. The deal was announced Sunday and replaces a five-year contract expiring this month. The CSO said the deal includes cost reductions, managerial efficiencies, increased revenue opportunities and improved working conditions. CSO musicians struck for two days in September 2012 and for seven weeks in March and April 2019 before agreeing to a contract calling for a 13.25% wage increase over five years. Music director emeritus for life Riccardo Muti will lead the CSO season-opening concert Sept. 21 at Orchestra Hall and take the orchestra to New York to open Carnegie Hall’s season Oct. 4.

Persons: Riccardo Muti Organizations: CHICAGO, Chicago Symphony Orchestra, Chicago Federation of Musicians, CSO, Orchestra Hall, Carnegie, Associated Press Locations: New York

☆ Factbox: Impact of possible strikes on Detroit Three automakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A strike would ground production to a halt, costing billions of dollars in losses for automakers as well as their suppliers. UAW workers have struck work for two days at GM and for one day at Chrysler in 2007. Prior to 1976, strikes were frequently used as a bargaining tool at Detroit Three. STRIKE IMPACTThe Detroit Three automakers account for about 40% of U.S. new light vehicle sales by units, according to J.P. Morgan. STRIKE TOLLTen-day strikes at all three automakers could cost manufacturers, workers, suppliers and dealers more than $5 billion, according to economic consulting firm Anderson Economic Group.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Kristin Dzizcek, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Sam Fiorani, Anderson, Mehr Bedi, Nathan Gomes, Joe White, Anil D'Silva Organizations: General Motors, REUTERS, Ford Motor, UAW, DETROIT, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Chicago Federal Reserve, Detroit, IHS, AutoForecast Solutions, Intelligence, Deloitte, Alliance for Automotive Innovation, Anderson Economic, Deutsche Bank Research, Thomson Locations: Detroit , Michigan, U.S, United States, Bengaluru, Detroit

☆ Endgame for Fed's tightening cycle challenged by easing financial conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Taking in to account everything from stock prices to measures of borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households, financial conditions matter to monetary policy. On Friday, the Federal Reserve reported that its Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth for June moved to 0.458, from May’s 0.603 reading. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ closely watched Financial Conditions Index has been easing fairly steadily since May. An explicit goal has been to tighten financial conditions. Even as many key aspects of the economy have remained strong in the face of higher rates, inflation pressures are easing.

Persons: Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs ’, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Piper Sandler's Durham, Michael S, Dan Burns, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Derby, Thomson Locations: Chicago, New York

☆ The Fed has paused before. Here’s what happened next
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Fed had a similar predicament in 2006After raising interest rates 17 consecutive times between June 2004 and June 2006, Fed officials became concerned that they could inadvertently damage the economy if they continued to hike rates. When the Fed met again in September, many officials expressed concerns that raising interest rates after a short, six-week pause would broadcast the wrong message. Lacker continued to be the sole Fed official who favored raising interest rates until his term expired at the end of the year. “It’s pretty easy to believe that the Fed will find that it didn’t raise rates enough and so choose to raise rates somewhat further before stopping and, later on, reducing rates,” he said. Fed officials then opted for a pause in the fall of 1994 and raised rates further in the winter.

Persons: Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, “, ” Michael Moskow, ”, Cathy Minehan, Jeffrey Lacker, Lacker, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, Athanasios Orphanides, Austan Goolsbee, William English Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Traders, Fed, Committee, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Chicago Fed, Boston Fed, Richmond Fed, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, European Central Bank, Food Forum, Yale University Locations: New York, Washington ,, Xinhua, Chicago

☆ The Fed has rolled out a new index for gauging the economy that could have big implications
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is changing the way it looks at "financial conditions," a move that could have important ramifications for policy ahead. The Fed has been using a series of interest rate increases to tighten financial conditions and, ultimately, to bring down inflation. Essentially, the move allows the Fed to distance itself from other financial conditions models, such as those formulated by Goldman Sachs and the Chicago Fed . By contrast, the Chicago Fed index's current reading is -0.28, implying relatively loose conditions. Capital Economics noted that the FCI-G "does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures."

Persons: they've, Krishna Guha, Jerome, Powell, Guha, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Evercore ISI, Fed, Chicago Fed, Treasury, Dow Jones, U.S, FCI

☆ Ex-bank executive steps down from NY Fed board
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The regional Fed said Murphy stepped down from one of its New York Fed director slots reserved for bankers. Arrow, a bank holding company, also owns Saratoga National Bank and Trust Co.Murphy had been a Class A director on the New York Fed board since January 2021. Fed bank presidents have also said their boards provide local economic intelligence and advice on running large institutions. The New York Fed has had its own troubles with bankers on its board in years past. The setup of the regional Fed board of directors is determined by law and not the central bank.

☆ NY Fed's domestic markets chief to join Bank of New York Mellon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 15 (Reuters) - Bank of New York Mellon Corp on Monday said a top New York Federal Reserve official responsible for domestic markets will join the firm next month in a job focused on financial markets. Nathaniel Wuerffel, who last served as senior vice president at the New York Fed and was the New York Fed's Head of Domestic Markets, will join the bank as Head of Market Structure. His bio said he had been working as chief of the domestic markets group since June 2018. Before joining the New York Fed, Wuerffel worked at the Chicago Fed, starting there in 1998. Wuerffel’s exit comes amid flux in the New York Fed’s top staff.

If a bank failure were to leave one of them without access to cash, widespread market instability would follow. “Why take that risk?” Summer Mersinger, a member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, told DealBook. Clearinghouses exist to mitigate risk, taking collateral and settling transactions between buyers and sellers in all kinds of financial markets. This means a bank’s failure could easily lead to losses for a clearinghouse that “could potentially reverberate across the financial system,” the Chicago Fed concluded in a 2020 report. Even without a complete failure at a commercial bank, delays in access to cash could trigger liquidity issues across markets.

☆ Bond yields could drop under an idea that would make Treasury trading more like the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Known as "all-to-all" trading, the idea would allow any market participant to interact directly with another, without intermediaries. But in the Treasury market, banks have traditionally acted as dealers for buyers and sellers. Whether it happens or not, some changes to the Treasury market appear likely as it has become less liquid. At the same time, the Treasury market skyrocketed after 2008, as the government injected large quantities of stimulus into the economy that sent debt soaring. But all-to-all trading may also introduce less rational investors into Treasury markets, applying a gambling mentality to some trades.

☆ With the banking crisis on hold, the Fed is back to fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.

April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks as employment growth moderated somewhat and price increases appeared to slow, according to a Federal Reserve report published on Wednesday. Several Fed districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity, the report showed. In the San Francisco Fed district, where failed Silicon Valley Bank was located, "lending activity fell significantly in recent weeks amid higher interest rates and elevated uncertainty in the banking sector," the report said. "Banking contacts reported some movement in deposits but little change in credit availability following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank," the Chicago Fed said. The Fed report noted that inflation pressures had moderated but remained widespread.

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